The tree · Regime · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
Space spending recovers within three years of a recession
Downturns are when long builds get cut. The test is whether, after a recession, the government human-spaceflight budget and the largest private launch company's flight rate come back to where they were rather than being cut and left there. A dip is allowed; what the tree needs is that the field keeps its funding across the business cycle. The node is tested at every recession and resolves yes the first time the field comes through one.
What counts as it having happened
Within three calendar years after the end of a US recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US human-spaceflight appropriation is back within ten percent of its pre-recession level in real terms and the largest US launch provider's orbital launch count is back within ten percent of its pre-recession count. Resolves yes at the first recession that passes the test; a recession that fails it leaves the node open for the next.
Settled by: NBER recession dates, federal appropriations records, public launch logs
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 82% | 85% | 90% | 90% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: The 2008 and 2020 downturns both saw space budgets and launch counts recover within three years, and the private flight rate is carried by constellation customers; the residual is a downturn deep enough to restructure the field. Rises slowly because every added recession is another chance to pass. Proposed with the rewording, 2026-09-19.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | budget and launch count must not fall more than ten percent during the recession year itself; a fail was permanent | budget and launch count are back within ten percent within three years after the recession; a fail leaves the node open for the next recession | First run (docs/runs/2026-09-19-first-run.md): as a hard dependency of a hundred people working off Earth, a permanent no from one bad budget year foreclosed that node in every later decade. John ruled 2026-09-19 to reword to durable form. |
| 2026-09-19 | probability | 0.55 flat across scenarios | 0.80 / 0.82 / 0.85 / 0.90 / 0.90 | Re-estimated against the reworded criterion; recovery within three years is a much easier test than no dip at all, and later recessions add chances. |
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The record itself is data/R-regime.toml in the public repository.