One man's odds of leaving Earth, tracked in public
0.5%
The chance that, before I die, I live and work in a solar system where human industry reaches beyond Earth and Mars.
That is by 2071. Nobody knows how long I get, so the dial lets you change that assumption and watch the odds move.
That number is the chance that, in my lifetime, I work a rotation on a ship, a station or a rock out past Mars, where something made off Earth sells at a profit. The nearer thing, a rotation at a station or a lunar base whether or not industry ever goes further, comes out at 9.3%.
unchanged since the last run of the tree, on October 11th, 2026. See what changed (1 entry).
Last checked October 18th, 2026: 17 events read, nothing moved. See the week's reading.
If I reach my life expectancy, about 85 years old.
These are my odds, in my lifetime.
Run the same tree for your lifetime.
How likely is a much longer life? That's the question Outrunning Ageing tracks.
Why the name?
The name comes from the Belters of the TV series The Expanse, the people who live and work in the asteroid belt, far from Earth. Underestimated, and at home where nobody thought people could be. I want to see a solar system like that unfold. This site works out, in public, how likely that is.
Who is asking
I'm John, 40 years old, and I write about AI, sentience and the spread of conscious life beyond Earth at Sentient Horizons. I want to leave the planet before I die, and I'd rather know my real odds than keep the wish vague. So I built the probability tree behind this page. It puts a number on the wish and it shows me which links are likely to move in the next few years, so I know where to watch, and which ones would move the odds most.
Why so low
Seven things all have to go right.
Each link below is a real thing that has to happen. Any broken link breaks the chain. That is the whole equation: multiply seven maybes together and you get a small number, even when no single link looks hopeless.
Odds shown by 2071
In this time frame the weakest link is a reason to go, at 5.9%. The links lean on each other, so these are not independent dice; the honest math, with every one of the 81 smaller steps behind these seven, is on the numbers page, and all 81 steps are drawn as one picture. There is also an eighth thing I track and never multiply in. It is there too.
In the notation of the numbers page: P= W × L × E × D × B × M × R × A with C beside it, never multiplied in
What would move it
Cheap launch and bodies that tolerate low gravity. Nearly everything else leans on those two. When either one moves, the number at the top moves with it.
What I can do about it
Only the last link is mine. I can choose the training I take and the jobs I chase, and the tree tells me which choices raise the odds. That is the real reason this exists.
Think a number here is wrong?
Every link has a page, a definition of what counts, and a number you can argue with. Changes get a line in the public changelog.
Here's how to tell me, and what happens next