The tree · E
Energy
That cheap, abundant power exists off Earth, from fusion or an equivalent.
5 nodes, 4 with probabilities, 1 resolved. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbit E-megawatt-spacecraft-operates-in-orbit85%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- Construction begins on a fusion plant built to sell electricity to a customer E-construction-begins-on-a-fusion-plant-meant-to-sell-electricityresolved yes2025-07-30Leaf Resolved: yes
- A fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a grid E-fusion-plant-delivers-net-electricity60%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open
- A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year E-fission-reactor-runs-on-lunar-surface70%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds T1
- High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does today E-superconducting-wire-price-falls-tenfold55%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open