The tree · Energy · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
High-temperature superconducting wire costs a tenth of what it does today
The strong, light magnets that compact fusion, magnetic radiation shielding, and some drive concepts all need are made of high-temperature superconducting tape, and its price is what keeps those magnets rare. A tenfold fall from the 2026 price puts a fusion plant's magnets, or a shield around a crew cabin, within an ordinary project budget. This node feeds nodes in biology and drive as well as fusion.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Published price lists or public procurement records show high-temperature superconducting tape sold in production quantities at fifteen 2026 dollars or less per kiloamp-metre (one tenth of the frozen 2026 reference below), measured the way the industry prices it (per unit of current the tape carries over a metre, the kiloamp-metre) at the industry's standard rating condition, 77 kelvin in self-field, and adjusted for inflation by the US consumer price index. Reference, frozen September 19th, 2026: about one hundred and fifty dollars per kiloamp-metre at 77 kelvin, self-field, for rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) coated conductor, twelve millimetres wide on a metal substrate, in a production-quantity order of kilometres of tape.
Settled by: Vendor price lists and public procurement or agency cost reports
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 65% | 80% | 90% | 92% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Tape prices have been falling and fusion demand is scaling production, but a full tenfold in real terms needs a manufacturing shift, not just volume; the most uncertain number in this group.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
What the ledger says about this step
- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
No dated 2026 vendor price list or procurement record was found for either verify claim (vendors quote on request). Secondary sources give $150 to 200 per kA-m at 77 K self-field around 2021 and an analysis figure near $100, so the $150 reference and the 12 mm tape specification remain unconfirmed but not contradicted.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
No price list or procurement record at 15 dollars per kiloamp-metre or less appeared; results only restate industry targets of 10 to 20 dollars per kiloamp-metre.
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2026-09-19 Nothing new
No published price list or procurement record shows a tenfold drop in high-temperature superconducting tape price in the window; volume prices remain around 150 to 300 dollars per kiloamp-metre against a 50 dollar target.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'one tenth or less of its 2026 price', reference unstated | a stated dollar figure per kiloamp-metre with the reference price, tape specification, order size and rating condition (77 kelvin, self-field) frozen in the record | Step 27 outside-model review, items 14 and 67 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): tape is priced severalfold differently between conditions, so the reference must be frozen before the decline is judged; every figure in the reference is marked verify until sourced. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Claims still to be checked
- The 2026 reference price of about $150 per kiloamp-metre at 77 K, self-field, for production-quantity REBCO tape was written from memory on September 20th, 2026 and needs a vendor price list or procurement record with a date.
- The tape specification in the reference (REBCO coated conductor, 12 mm wide, metal substrate, production order of kilometres) needs the same source; if the sourced figure differs, the resolution's fifteen-dollar threshold moves with it to one tenth of the sourced reference.
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The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.