What could happen next

The ten things that would move the number most

Of the steps the headline rests on, these are the ones nothing else has to happen before. Any of them could land next. They are ranked by how far the headline would move if one happened tomorrow and nothing else changed.

Each figure comes from forcing that one step to happen and playing the whole tree out again, so it is worked out rather than guessed. The list is redrawn every time the tree is run, and every earlier version is kept below. My own path in, the training and career steps, is left off: this page is about the world.

The list now

from the run of 2026-10-11, ranked by 2080

The headline stands at 1.2% by 2080. The figures are read against 2080 rather than 2071 because by 2071 the headline is so small that most of these steps would move it by less than the dice do between two runs, and the order would be partly chance. Anything under about 0.15 points is inside that noise even here, so read the order more than the last decimal.

1 A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows governments · Plays out over the whole window · 38% chance by 2071, 46% by 2080 · same place +0.27 points +22% of today's figure
2 A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half bodies that hold up · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 50% chance by 2071, 54% by 2080 · same place +0.21 points +17% of today's figure
3 A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine cheap launch · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 51% chance by 2071, 61% by 2080 · same place +0.20 points +17% of today's figure
4 The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth governments · Plays out over the whole window · 46% chance by 2071, 54% by 2080 · same place +0.19 points +16% of today's figure
5 A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts cheap launch · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 58% chance by 2071, 67% by 2080 · same place +0.19 points +16% of today's figure
6 The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations governments · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 50% chance by 2071, 59% by 2080 · same place +0.19 points +16% of today's figure
7 A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space fast ships · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 59% chance by 2071, 69% by 2080 · same place +0.15 points +13% of today's figure
8 A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity bodies that hold up · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · 67% chance by 2071, 71% by 2080 · same place +0.15 points +12% of today's figure, within the noise
9 A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives bodies that hold up · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · 46% chance by 2071, 55% by 2080 · same place +0.15 points +12% of today's figure, within the noise
10 A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight cheap launch · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · 93% chance by 2071, 94% by 2080 · same place +0.14 points +12% of today's figure, within the noise

How to read it

When. The tree does not give a year for each step. It gives a rough band, how soon the step could be decided, and a chance for each deadline. A step marked as playing out over the whole window can still happen early; it just is not expected to.

Worth, not likelihood. A step near the top is not the most likely to happen next. It is the one that would change the answer most if it did. Steps the tree already expects, like a rocket recovering both its stages, are worth less because most of their effect is already counted.

What is missing. Bigger steps sit further up the tree, behind ones that have not happened yet, so they are not on this list until those do. The full picture is on the tree, where each part has its own list of what would move it.

Earlier versions

one per saved run, newest first

Each list is read from a run saved in the repository. Runs from before 2026-10-03 did not record the list themselves; it was worked out afterwards from the tree as it was committed with each run, using the figures that run saved.

2026-10-04 no change

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.27 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
2. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.21 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
3. A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine
+0.20 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
4. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
+0.19 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
5. A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
+0.19 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
6. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.19 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
7. A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
8. A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · same place
9. A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
10. A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · same place

2026-10-02 3 new to the list worked out afterwards

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.27 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
2. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.21 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 7
3. A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine
+0.20 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
4. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
+0.19 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · up from 6
5. A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
+0.19 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 10
6. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.19 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 9
7. A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
8. A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · new to the list
9. A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 8
10. A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · new to the list

2026-09-25, run 3 of 3 that day 4 new to the list worked out afterwards

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.24 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
2. A hundred tonnes of material from an asteroid are delivered to orbit around Earth or the Moon in one year
+0.18 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · new to the list
3. A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine
+0.18 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
4. A crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backer
+0.17 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
5. A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium
+0.17 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · up from 8
6. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
+0.17 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · up from 7
7. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.16 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 4
8. A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 2
9. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 5
10. A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list

2026-09-25, run 2 of 3 that day no change worked out afterwards

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.18 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
2. A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives
+0.16 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
3. A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
4. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
5. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.11 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
6. A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
7. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
unchanged by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
8. A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · same place
9. Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burned
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · same place
10. A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
−0.08 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place

2026-09-25, run 1 of 3 that day 3 new to the list worked out afterwards

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.18 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · same place
2. A major operation under anaesthesia is performed off Earth and the patient survives
+0.16 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
3. A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 9
4. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
5. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.11 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 3
6. A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
7. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
unchanged by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · down from 2
8. A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · down from 4
9. Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burned
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · up from 10
10. A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
−0.08 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 6

2026-09-20 5 new to the list worked out afterwards

1. A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows
+0.24 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · new to the list
2. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
+0.22 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · down from 1
3. The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations
+0.21 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
4. A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium
+0.21 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · new to the list
5. Space spending recovers within three years of the next recession
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 9
6. A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · same place
7. A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
8. A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · up from 10
9. A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government
+0.14 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 5
10. Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burned
+0.13 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · new to the list

2026-09-19, run 2 of 2 that day 2 new to the list before the outside review worked out afterwards

1. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
+0.30 points by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window · up from 4
2. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
+0.26 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 1
3. A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food, water, and air recycled on site
+0.18 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 7
4. A nuclear-powered engine changes a spacecraft's orbit in space for the first time
+0.18 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 8
5. A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government
+0.18 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
6. A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
+0.15 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · up from 9
7. A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight
+0.13 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · up from 10
8. A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
+0.10 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · new to the list
9. Space spending recovers within three years of a recession
−0.05 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years · down from 3
10. A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity
−0.10 points by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years · down from 6

2026-09-19, run 1 of 2 that day the first list before the outside review worked out afterwards

1. A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
2. A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
3. Space spending recovers within three years of a recession
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
4. The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth
unchanged by 2080 · Plays out over the whole window
5. A mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravity
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
6. A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
7. A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food, water, and air recycled on site
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
8. A nuclear-powered engine changes a spacecraft's orbit in space for the first time
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
9. A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
10. A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight
unchanged by 2080 · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years