The tree · Launch · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts
The orbital-construction node of the habitat branch. The space station is about a hundred metres long and took a decade of crewed assembly flights. A spinning habitat, a large power station, or a shipyard needs structures at least that size assembled mostly by machines from parts launched cheaply. This is the step from launching things to building things.
The test: what counts as it having happened
A single connected structure with a longest dimension over one hundred metres, assembled after 2026, is assembled in orbit from parts delivered on at least five separate launches, with more than half of the structural joins, by the operator's published count, made without a spacewalk, confirmed by the operator's assembly records and independent tracking.
Settled by: The operator's assembly records, including its published count of structural joins, and independent orbital tracking
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 70% | 85% | 93% | 95% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Possible at today's prices, as the station proved, but nobody has a customer for it yet; the likelihood rides on cheap launch without depending on it.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 10% | 14% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
What the ledger says about this step
- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
-
2026-11-01 Nothing new
Only research concepts and papers surfaced, with no flown 100 metre structure or operator assembly record since September 27th, 2026.
-
2026-10-04 Nothing new
No assembly of a structure over 100 metres from five or more launches was reported; results were concept studies and commercial station schedules (Haven-1 and Axiom modules slipping to 2027 or later).
-
2026-09-19 Nothing new
Nothing in the five-week window shows a structure over 100 metres assembled in orbit from five or more separate launches; precursor projects (a 1.4 metre DARPA truss demo, a planned 40 metre Orbital Assembly proof of concept) remain far smaller or unflown.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'most of the joining done by robots or automated systems', on any structure | more than half of the structural joins, by the operator's published count, made without a spacewalk, on a structure assembled after 2026 | Step 27 outside-model review, items 13 and 57 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): the space station is already 109 metres across and its modules were berthed by a crew-operated arm, so 'most of the joining' could have been argued for a structure that exists; 'entirely by robots' was declined because one spacewalk to fix a jammed latch should not fail the node. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Notes
Drafted as depending on the two-hundred-dollar launch price; loosened at step 7 (September 8th, 2026) because a structure this size could be assembled at today's prices with enough money, as the space station was. Cheap launch makes it likely, not possible.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.