Launch

The headline stands at 0.5% by 2071. If one of these settled tomorrow and nothing else changed, the whole tree is played out again and the headline lands where the figure says. This is the site saying in advance what a milestone is worth, before it happens: when one of them lands, the entry that records it quotes what was predicted here. These come from playing the tree out 20,000 times per scenario, which is a throw of the dice: anything smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise, so read the order rather than the last decimal.

• A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one year +0.1 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogram +0.1 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.5% if it turned out no (too small to tell apart from chance)
• Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burned too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A hundred tonnes of material from an asteroid are delivered to orbit around Earth or the Moon in one year too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.4% if it turned out no (too small to tell apart from chance)
• A fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar year too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbit too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.4% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)

• Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28th, 2026, but neither stage was caught, so the launch steps stay where they were 2026-10-04 Widely reported, moved nothing
• Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
• Nine steps were added to the tree, seven of them new requirements on the chain, which is most of why the headline fell in this run 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
• A hundred tonnes of lunar material a year, given power, people and political continuity, was raised: at that point it is cadence, not a breakthrough 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
• The odds that mass to orbit sells below two hundred dollars a kilogram, given a hundred flights a year, came down after two of three reviewers said cadence proves nothing about price 2026-09-20 Changed my mind

• A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again L-crew-lands-on-moon-in-reusable-lander
  85%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• A fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar year L-heavy-launcher-100-per-year
  85%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight L-fully-reusable-heavy-launcher-recovers-both-stages
  95%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit L-orbital-propellant-transfer-at-scale
  90%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• Ten tonnes of cryogenic propellant are kept in orbit for six months and then burned L-cryogenic-propellant-stored-in-orbit-six-months-and-used
  80%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20
  By 2031 Not yet
• A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts L-large-structure-assembled-in-orbit
  60%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet
• A tonne of propellant made from off-Earth material is fired in a rocket engine L-propellant-produced-off-earth-and-fired-in-a-thruster
  50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20
  Within 20 years Not yet
• Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogram L-launch-price-below-200-dollars-per-kg
  60%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet needed for Settlement
• A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbit L-off-earth-material-delivered-at-scale
  100%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-25
  Whole window Not yet
• A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one year L-lunar-material-delivered-to-orbit-at-scale
  55%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet needed for Slow Expanse
• A hundred tonnes of material from an asteroid are delivered to orbit around Earth or the Moon in one year L-asteroid-material-delivered-to-orbit-at-scale
  8%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-25
  Whole window Not yet