The tree · L
Launch
That the cost of putting mass into orbit falls below the threshold that makes everything else affordable.
7 nodes, 7 with probabilities. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again L-crew-lands-on-moon-in-reusable-lander85%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open feeds T1
- A fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar year L-heavy-launcher-100-per-year85%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight L-fully-reusable-heavy-launcher-recovers-both-stages95%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit L-orbital-propellant-transfer-at-scale90%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A structure more than a hundred metres across is assembled in orbit from separately launched parts L-large-structure-assembled-in-orbit60%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open
- Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogram L-launch-price-below-200-dollars-per-kg70%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds T2
- A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one year L-lunar-material-delivered-to-orbit-at-scale35%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds T3