The tree · Launch · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
A hundred tonnes of material dug or made on the Moon are delivered to orbit in one year
The lunar-supply and materials node of the habitat branch. Lifting mass from the Moon takes a twentieth of the energy of lifting it from Earth, so once mining, refining, and a way up (rockets burning lunar oxygen, or an electromagnetic launcher) exist, the Moon becomes the quarry for everything built in space. A hundred tonnes a year is the scale at which a habitat or a propellant depot can be fed from the Moon rather than from Earth.
What counts as it having happened
In one calendar year, at least one hundred tonnes of material originating on the Moon (loose surface rock and dust, oxygen, water, metal, or products made from them) are delivered to lunar or Earth orbit and used there, reported by the operator with independent confirmation.
Settled by: The operator's public accounting, confirmed by the customer or an agency
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 50% | 70% | 85% | 90% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Even with power, people, and political continuity, mining and launching from the Moon at scale needs a buyer in orbit; the first forty-five years are the hard ones.
Notes
Edges drawn at step 7 (2026-09-08): mining at scale needs surface power through the lunar night, and a decade of lunar work needs the program to outlive elections.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.