The tree · Launch · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
A hundred tonnes a year of material from the Moon or an asteroid are delivered to orbit
The either-route step for off-Earth material at scale. A product mined or made off Earth needs a supply of off-Earth material in orbit, and it does not matter which body the material comes from. Resolves if either route does: a hundred tonnes a year from the Moon, or a hundred tonnes a year from an asteroid. Written under the function-over-route rule (docs/methodology.md).
The test: what counts as it having happened
Either of the two route nodes it depends on has resolved yes.
Settled by: The resolving route node's own source
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of 2026-09-25.
Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either route does; certainty here means the number is carried entirely by the two route nodes.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
The last check
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
Neither route node has resolved; no lunar or asteroid material delivered to orbit was reported in the window.
Notes
Added 2026-09-25 under candidate 7 of docs/proposal-function-over-route-2026-09-25.md, approved by John 2026-09-25. M-off-earth-product-sold-at-a-profit depends on this step instead of the lunar route alone. Tier 3 still lists the lunar route itself among its requirements, so the asteroid route can lift the product step but not the Belt tier; whether Tier 3 should list this step instead was not part of the ruling.
Think this is wrong, missing something it depends on, or badly estimated?
Open an issue about it, or read
how feedback gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.