The tree · Motive · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profit
The Tier 3 criterion in economic terms. Propellant made from lunar ice, metal from an asteroid, structures built from lunar material: the first product that pays for itself. The node measures whether a supplier made money on something made from off-Earth material; whether it did so on a government anchor contract is disclosed, not excluded.
The test: what counts as it having happened
A company reports, in audited accounts or an equivalent public filing, that revenue from selling a physical product extracted or manufactured off Earth, from material mostly, by mass, extracted off Earth, exceeded the full cost of producing it over a financial year, full cost meaning all costs the company attributes to the product in its accounts, including capital and transport, with any government subsidy or anchor contract disclosed.
Settled by: The company's audited accounts or equivalent public filing
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 75% | 85% | 92% | 95% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Given off-Earth material delivered at scale (from the Moon or an asteroid), resource rules, mutually recognised keep-out zones and an insurable asset, the remaining test is one company, one product, one profitable year, and a government buyer's anchor contract can settle it; propellant in orbit is the likeliest product.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.6% (+0.1 points). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.6% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 12% | 16% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
What the ledger says about this step
- Nine steps were added to the tree, seven of them new requirements on the chain, which is most of why the headline fell in this run 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- Something made off Earth being sold at a profit was raised, given its requirements, while two new requirements were put under it 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
-
2026-11-01 Nothing new
No company reports sales of an off-Earth-sourced product, let alone a profitable year, in audited accounts. Results were funding rounds, plans and market forecasts.
-
2026-10-04 Nothing new
No company reported profitable sales of an off-Earth product. Interlune's helium-3 supply agreements are future deliveries (2029 onward) and AstroForge is pre-revenue.
-
2026-09-19 Nothing new
Industry coverage continues to describe off-Earth extraction as pre-revenue through at least 2028; no company reported profitable off-Earth-sourced product sales in the window.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'a physical product extracted or manufactured off Earth', 'full cost' undefined | from material mostly, by mass, extracted off Earth; full cost meaning all costs the company attributes to the product in its accounts, including capital and transport, with any government subsidy or anchor contract disclosed | Step 27 outside-model review, items 79 and 81 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): as written, fibre drawn in orbit from Earth glass would have counted with neither dependency, so the criterion was narrowed to match the edges; supplier profitability with support disclosed is the honest reading of 'full cost'. Both edges kept. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | description | 'the moment a solar-system economy exists rather than a set of subsidised outposts' | 'the first product that pays for itself' | Step 27 outside-model review, item 79: the node measures a supplier's profit, not an independent economy. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | depends_on | lunar material at scale and the resource-rights node | the same two plus R-us-and-china-recognise-keep-out-zones-around-off-earth-installations and M-commercial-insurance-written-on-a-private-lunar-asset | Step 27 outside-model review, items 19 and 21 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): mutually recognised keep-out zones and an insurable lunar asset are what let capital price the risk of a product made out there; both land as gates under item 80. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | probability | 0.55 / 0.65 / 0.80 / 0.90 / 0.93 | 0.65 / 0.75 / 0.85 / 0.92 / 0.95 | Step 27 outside-model review, item 80 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): with the supply and the rules given, one profitable year of lunar propellant to an agency buyer is not a stretch; the two new gates pull the unconditional chance down while the conditional goes up. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-25 | depends_on | L-lunar-material-delivered-to-orbit-at-scale | L-off-earth-material-delivered-at-scale | Candidate 7 of docs/proposal-function-over-route-2026-09-25.md, I approved September 25th, 2026: what a product made off Earth takes from lunar delivery is off-Earth material at scale, and an asteroid could supply it as well. The lunar route is now one of two under the either-route step. The numbers stand: they were set given the supply, and the supply's source does not change the chance of one profitable year. |
| 2026-09-25 | rationale | 'Given lunar delivery at scale' | 'Given off-Earth material delivered at scale (from the Moon or an asteroid)' | Candidate 7, as above: the rationale now names the new dependency. Text only. |
Notes
Edges drawn at step 7 (September 8th, 2026): the only supply route in the tree was lunar material at scale, and selling it needs the ownership rules to exist. The asteroid route was added as a second option on September 25th, 2026 (candidate 7 of the function-over-route pass). Two more gates added September 19th, 2026 under step 27, items 19 and 21.
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The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.