The tree · Motive · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profit
The Tier 3 criterion in economic terms. Propellant made from lunar ice, metal from an asteroid, structures built from lunar material: the first product whose sale covers its cost is the moment a solar-system economy exists rather than a set of subsidised outposts.
What counts as it having happened
A company reports, in audited accounts or an equivalent public filing, that revenue from selling a physical product extracted or manufactured off Earth exceeded the full cost of producing it over a financial year.
Settled by: The company's audited accounts or equivalent public filing
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 65% | 80% | 90% | 93% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: With supply and ownership settled, profit still needs a buyer at a price above a first-of-kind cost; propellant in orbit is the likeliest product.
Notes
Edges drawn at step 7 (2026-09-08): the only supply route in the tree is lunar material at scale (an asteroid route would be a second option if a node is added), and selling it needs the ownership rules to exist.
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The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.