A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium

Insurance is how capital prices risk. Satellites in orbit are insured every day; nothing on the Moon is, because no underwriter can price a lander, a plant, or a mine there. The first commercial policy on a privately owned lunar asset, with a real premium, is the sign that the risk of owning things on the Moon has become a number, which is what a product sold at a profit from out there needs behind it.

The test: what counts as it having happened

A commercial insurance syndicate or underwriter writes damage and liability cover on a privately owned asset on the lunar surface or in lunar orbit, at an annual premium of one million dollars or more (in 2026 dollars by the US consumer price index), confirmed by the insurer's or the insured's public statement or filing.

Settled by: The insurer's or the insured's public statement or financial filing

The odds, by how long I live

baselineto 2071 ± 8	moderateto 2080	strongto 2095	radicalto 2136	openno deadline
70%	78%	86%	92%	94%

Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of 2026-09-20.

Why these numbers: The satellite insurance market already writes launch and in-orbit cover on commercial landers, and a lunar asset worth insuring at a million a year needs only a commercial lunar operation of any size, which the outpost tier assumes; the residual is that operators self-insure or governments carry the risk for decades. Proposed by Claude 2026-09-20 with the node's addition, accepted by John.

What this one is worth

If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).

Longevity scenario	baseline2071 ± 8	moderate2080	strong2095	radical2136	openno deadline
The headline as it stands	0.5%	1.2%	3.8%	11%	15%
If this settled yes now	0.5%	1.2%	3.9%	11%	15%
If this settled no now	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run 2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise rather than a finding.

The last 3 checks

Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.

2026-10-11 Nothing new

No lunar asset policy with a premium of a million dollars or more has been publicly confirmed; the only precedent is ispace's 2022 Mitsui Sumitomo program, and a 2026 trade piece says insurers want more successful missions first.
2026-10-08 Nothing new

No insurer has announced cover with a premium of a million dollars or more on a private lunar asset; underwriters quoted in April 2026 said they want multiple successful missions first, and the only lunar precedent found is ispace's 2022 launch-to-landing policy.
2026-10-04 Nothing new

No new lunar-asset insurance policy with a million-dollar premium was reported. Results are general market commentary and older 2022 ispace coverage.

Notes

Added 2026-09-20 under step 27, item 21 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md, ruled 2026-09-19): raised by Gemini as a missing node; a dependency of M-off-earth-product-sold-at-a-profit.

Think this is wrong, missing something it depends on, or badly estimated? Open an issue about it, or read how feedback gets folded into the tree. The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.