The space missions I'm following

NASA's programme to send people back to the Moon. Its first crew flew round the Moon in April 2026, the first people beyond low Earth orbit since 1972.

Why I follow it: These are the first people to go past low Earth orbit since before I was born. If they land, and keep landing, the Moon stops being history and becomes a place people work.draft for John to rewrite

◆ Bears on 2 steps of my odds: A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again; A crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backer.

Next: Artemis III: a crew tests docking with one or both Moon landers in orbit around Earth, 2027 (planned)

• ● Artemis II launches four astronauts on a flight around the Moon, 1 April 2026 (happened) NASA, Artemis II
• ● Artemis II splashes down, the crew home, 10 April 2026 (happened) NASA, Artemis II
• ═ Artemis III: a crew tests docking with one or both Moon landers in orbit around Earth, 2027 (planned) Changed on 27 February 2026 from a Moon landing to this test in Earth orbit. NASA gives only the year; Wikipedia says no earlier than June 2027 in one place and late 2027 in another, and quotes a NASA lander schedule of October 2026 that says mid-2027. NASA, Artemis III · Wikipedia, Artemis III
• ═ Artemis IV: the first crewed Moon landing of the programme, early 2028 (planned) As of October 2026 NASA had not chosen which lander carries the crew. NASA, Artemis IV · Wikipedia, Starship HLS

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

A heavy rocket built to be flown again, both halves, and one of the two Moon landers NASA is testing for Artemis.

Why I follow it: If a rocket this big can fly, land and fly again like an airliner, nearly everything else on this page gets cheaper. It is the one machine my odds lean on most.draft for John to rewrite

◆ Bears on 4 steps of my odds: A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight; A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit; A fully reusable heavy launcher flies 100 orbital missions in one calendar year; Mass to low Earth orbit is sold for less than two hundred dollars a kilogram.

So far the tower has caught the booster three times, and two caught boosters have flown again. No upper stage has yet been caught.

Next: Flight 15, which may try the first catch of the upper stage, no earlier than 8 November 2026 (planned)

• ● Flight 14, the first Starship flight to reach orbit, 28 September 2026 (happened) Wikipedia, list of Starship launches
• ○ Flight 15, which may try the first catch of the upper stage, no earlier than 8 November 2026 (planned) The date is provisional, and SpaceX had not confirmed the catch attempt. Wikipedia, list of Starship launches
• ═ One Starship refuels another in orbit, the first time, early 2027 (planned) From a NASA schedule shown in October 2026. The demonstration's own Wikipedia article says no earlier than late 2026 and "not yet scheduled". Wikipedia, Starship HLS · Wikipedia, the refuelling demonstration
• ═ Starship lands on the Moon with no crew, late 2027 (planned) Wikipedia, Starship HLS

Wikipedia (SpaceX's own pages show no text) · last checked October 21st, 2026

Two robot landers for the Moon's south pole: one hunts for ice, the other tries building with Moon soil.

Why I follow it: Water ice at the poles is the first thing anyone living on the Moon would need, and printing bricks from the dirt underfoot is the first try at building with what is already there.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. The nearest steps are about making fuel and material from what is found off Earth, which need far more than a first test.

Next: Chang'e 7 launches to look for ice in the south pole's shadowed craters, 2027 (planned)

• ═ Chang'e 7 launches to look for ice in the south pole's shadowed craters, 2027 (planned) Planned for 2026; moved on August 23rd, 2026. Postponed on 23 August 2026 from its launch window that year, with no reason given and no new date. AP, via News4JAX · Wikipedia, Chang'e 7
• ═ Chang'e 8 launches, to test making bricks from Moon soil, 2028 to 2029 (planned) Wikipedia, Chang'e 8

Wikipedia (China's space agency gives no dates) · last checked October 21st, 2026

A spacecraft driven by a nuclear reactor, to fly to Mars, and a reactor to power a base on the Moon.

Why I follow it: The Moon's night lasts two weeks, and sunlight can't carry a base through it. A reactor that works out there is the difference between visiting and staying.draft for John to rewrite

◆ Bears on 3 steps of my odds: A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year; A site on the Moon has a hundred kilowatts of electricity through the lunar night, for a year, from any source; A nuclear-powered engine produces a kilometre per second of velocity change in space.

Next: SR-1 Freedom, a reactor-driven spacecraft, launches toward Mars, late 2028 (planned)

• ═ SR-1 Freedom, a reactor-driven spacecraft, launches toward Mars, late 2028 (planned) NASA's pages say late 2028; the American Nuclear Society's report of the announcement said December 2028. NASA, SR-1 Freedom · NASA, 20 October 2026
• ═ SR-1 Freedom reaches Mars, 2029 (planned) NASA, SR-1 Freedom
• ═ Lunar Reactor-1 runs on the Moon, 2030 to the early 2030s (planned) 2030 is from the American Nuclear Society's report of NASA's announcement on 24 March 2026. NASA's own surface-reactor page, older than the announcement, says by the early 2030s. American Nuclear Society, 25 March 2026 · NASA, Fission Surface Power

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

Brings back the first sample from a moon of Mars: Phobos, the larger of its two moons.

Why I follow it: Nobody has ever held a piece of a moon of Mars. If this works, in 2031 there will be one in a lab on Earth, and it was launched the week I started following missions here.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. No step depends on a sample from Phobos; a few grams is a science return, not a supply line.

Next: Goes into orbit around Mars, August 2027 (planned)

• ● Launches on an H3 rocket from Tanegashima, Japan, 20 October 2026, Japan time (19 October in universal time) (happened) JAXA's launch release · ESA
• ○ Goes into orbit around Mars, August 2027 (planned) Germany's space agency says the second half of 2027. ESA
• ○ Begins orbiting Phobos, September 2027 (planned) ESA's mission graphic
• ═ Drops the small rover Idefix onto Phobos, late 2028 to early 2029 (planned) Sources differ: Germany's space agency says around the turn of 2028 and 2029; ESA says early 2029. DLR · ESA
• ═ Lands on Phobos and collects at least ten grams, 2030 (planned) JAXA plans two landings. France's space agency was reported to give 2029, but its page would not open on 21 October 2026, so it is not used here. ESA · JAXA
• ○ Leaves Mars for home, November 2030 (planned) ESA's mission graphic
• ═ The sample capsule lands in Australia, 2031 (planned) JAXA, the mission

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

Two small spacecraft that will orbit Mars together, to study how the stream of particles from the Sun strips away its air. It was built to show that a Mars mission can be done for little money.

Why I follow it: Two spacecraft for Mars on a small budget is the kind of mission falling launch prices are supposed to make ordinary. I want to see whether they do.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. It studies Mars's thin air; no step turns on what it finds.

Next: Swings past Earth to head for Mars, autumn 2026 (planned)

• ● Launches on Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, 13 November 2025 (happened) NASA, ESCAPADE
• ═ Swings past Earth to head for Mars, autumn 2026 (planned) NASA says autumn 2026; Wikipedia says November 2026. NASA, ESCAPADE · Wikipedia, ESCAPADE
• ○ Both spacecraft go into orbit around Mars, a few days apart, by September 2027 (planned) NASA gives no date; the date is Wikipedia's. Wikipedia, ESCAPADE
• ═ Both reach their matching science orbits, mid 2028 (planned) NASA, ESCAPADE

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

Goes to see what NASA's DART spacecraft did when it struck the small asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, the first mission to try one way of moving an asteroid.

Why I follow it: In 2022 a spacecraft hit a small asteroid on purpose and shortened its orbit. Hera is going to see exactly what that push did, which is the first step to doing it when it matters.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. It tests defending Earth from asteroids, not going out to them; no step turns on it.

Next: Second braking burn, 22 October 2026 (planned)

• ● First pictures of the asteroid Didymos, a single bright dot, 7 October 2026 (happened) Wikipedia, Hera
• ● First braking burn as it nears the asteroids, 15 October 2026 (happened) Wikipedia reports the burn as done; ESA's own pages had not yet reported it on 21 October 2026. Wikipedia, Hera · ESA, the burns planned
• ○ Second braking burn, 22 October 2026 (planned) ESA, the burns planned
• ○ Arrives at Didymos and its moonlet Dimorphos, November 2026 (planned) ESA gives the month and no day. Close study starts at 25 to 30 kilometres in November and December. ESA, Hera
• ═ Releases its two small satellites, Milani and Juventas, early 2027 (planned) ESA, Hera

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

China's first sample from an asteroid, then on to a comet in the main belt.

Why I follow it: One spacecraft, two very different worlds: a tiny rock that travels alongside Earth, then a comet out in the asteroid belt. It's the kind of long, patient mission the belt itself will need.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. A sample of grams brought home is science, not the off-Earth mining a step would need.

Next: Studies the asteroid and collects a sample, July 2026 to April 2027 (planned)

• ● Launches, 28 May 2025 (happened) Wikipedia, Tianwen-2
• ═ Studies the asteroid and collects a sample, July 2026 to April 2027 (planned) No sample had been reported by 21 October 2026. Wikipedia, Tianwen-2
• ● Arrives at the small asteroid Kamoʻoalewa, 4 July 2026 (happened) Wikipedia gives 7 June 2026 for the burn that brought it in, and 4 July for the arrival. Wikipedia, Tianwen-2
• ○ Leaves the asteroid, 24 April 2027 (planned) Wikipedia, Tianwen-2
• ○ The sample capsule lands on Earth, 29 November 2027 (planned) Wikipedia, Tianwen-2
• ○ Reaches the comet 311P, 24 January 2035 (planned) Wikipedia, Tianwen-2

Wikipedia (China's space agency has posted nothing since the launch) · last checked October 21st, 2026

The first visit to an asteroid whose surface holds a lot of metal. It may be part of the core of one of the building blocks of an early planet.

Why I follow it: The Belt in this site's name is full of places like this, and nobody has ever seen one up close. Psyche will be the first.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. Looking at a metal asteroid is not mining one; the steps about off-Earth material need far more.

Next: Arrives at the asteroid Psyche, for about two years in orbit, by August 2029 (planned)

• ● Launches, 13 October 2023 (happened) NASA, Psyche
• ● Swings past Mars, 15 May 2026 (happened) NASA's Psyche blog
• ○ Arrives at the asteroid Psyche, for about two years in orbit, by August 2029 (planned) NASA, Psyche

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

The spacecraft that brought back pieces of the asteroid Bennu in 2023, sent on to meet Apophis just after it passes closer to Earth than our highest satellites.

Why I follow it: In April 2029 an asteroid about 450 metres long will pass closer than the ring of satellites that hang over the equator, close enough to see without a telescope from a dark place. I want to see what the close pass does to it.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. It is a science visit; no step turns on it.

Next: Meets Apophis and stays to study it, April or June 2029 (sources differ) (planned)

• ● Swings past Earth on its way to Apophis, 23 September 2025 (happened) NASA, OSIRIS-APEX
• ═ Meets Apophis and stays to study it, April or June 2029 (sources differ) (planned) NASA says June 2029; Wikipedia says 21 April 2029, with a stay of about eighteen months. NASA, OSIRIS-APEX · Wikipedia, OSIRIS-REx
• ○ Apophis passes close to Earth, 13 April 2029 (planned) NASA says April 2029; the day is Wikipedia's. NASA, OSIRIS-APEX · Wikipedia, OSIRIS-REx

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

The first visit to the Trojan asteroids, which share Jupiter's orbit and are left over from when the planets formed.

Why I follow it: Lucy will fly past a record number of asteroids, out where Jupiter keeps two swarms of them, left over from when the planets were made.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. Flybys are science; no step turns on them.

Next: Flies past Eurybates and its small moon Queta, 11 August 2027 (planned)

• ○ Flies past Eurybates and its small moon Queta, 11 August 2027 (planned) NASA, Lucy
• ○ Flies past Polymele, 14 September 2027 (planned) NASA, Lucy
• ○ Flies past Leucus, 18 April 2028 (planned) NASA, Lucy
• ○ Flies past Orus, 11 November 2028 (planned) NASA, Lucy
• ○ Flies past the pair Patroclus and Menoetius, 3 March 2033 (planned) NASA, Lucy

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

The spacecraft that brought back pieces of the asteroid Ryugu in December 2020, still going, on its way to a small, fast-spinning asteroid.

Why I follow it: It already did the hard thing, bringing a piece of an asteroid home, and then kept going. I like a machine that outlives its first job.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. Its next visits are science; no step turns on them.

Next: Swings past Earth, December 2027 (planned)

• ● Flies past the asteroid Torifune, July 2026 (happened) Wikipedia gives the month. JAXA's page would not open on 21 October 2026. Wikipedia, Hayabusa2
• ○ Swings past Earth, December 2027 (planned) Wikipedia, Hayabusa2
• ○ Swings past Earth again, June 2028 (planned) Wikipedia, Hayabusa2
• ○ Reaches the asteroid 1998 KY26, July 2031 (planned) Wikipedia, Hayabusa2

Wikipedia (JAXA's Hayabusa2 page refused every request on 21 October 2026) · last checked October 21st, 2026

A company trying to reach a metal-rich asteroid, the first step to mining one.

Why I follow it: This is the closest anyone is to the idea this site is named for: a business going to an asteroid for what it's made of. Its first try was lost, and I want to show its failures as plainly as its successes.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. Not yet. The steps about off-Earth material at scale need far more than a first visit.

Next: Its second spacecraft, DeepSpace-2, launches, late 2026 or 2027 (its own pages say both) (planned)

• × Its first spacecraft, Odin, is declared lost before reaching its asteroid, 6 March 2025 (failed) Wikipedia, AstroForge
• ═ Its second spacecraft, DeepSpace-2, launches, late 2026 or 2027 (its own pages say both) (planned) AstroForge's pages say both "the fourth quarter of 2026" and "2027"; Wikipedia says the second half of 2026. AstroForge, DeepSpace-2 · Wikipedia, AstroForge
• ═ DeepSpace-2 meets a metal-rich asteroid and photographs it, about a year after launch (planned) Since 20 October 2026 AstroForge's page describes a flyby and pictures; Wikipedia still says a landing or docking. No target has been named. AstroForge, DeepSpace-2 · Wikipedia, AstroForge

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

A spacecraft to look at Europa, a moon of Jupiter with an ocean under its ice.

Why I follow it: There may be more than twice as much water under Europa's ice as in all of Earth's oceans. This is the closest look anyone has planned at whether something could live there.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. It is science; no step turns on it.

Next: Swings past Earth, 3 December 2026 (planned)

• ● Launches, 14 October 2024 (happened) NASA, Europa Clipper
• ● Swings past Mars, 2025 (happened) NASA, Europa Clipper
• ○ Swings past Earth, 3 December 2026 (planned) NASA, Europa Clipper
• ○ Reaches Jupiter, for 49 close passes of Europa, April 2030 (planned) NASA, Europa Clipper

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

The first spacecraft meant to orbit a moon other than our own: Ganymede, the largest in the solar system.

Why I follow it: Going into orbit around a moon of another planet is new. Ganymede is bigger than the planet Mercury, and it has an ocean under its ice too.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. It is science; no step turns on it.

Next: Swings past Earth for the last time, January 2029 (planned)

• ● Launches, 14 April 2023 (happened) ESA, JUICE
• ● Swings past Earth, 28 September 2026 (happened) ESA, 28 September 2026
• ○ Swings past Earth for the last time, January 2029 (planned) ESA, JUICE
• ○ Reaches Jupiter, July 2031 (planned) ESA, JUICE
• ○ Goes into orbit around Ganymede, December 2034 (planned) Only Wikipedia gives this date; ESA's pages do not. Wikipedia, JUICE

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026

A small private space station, which its maker calls the world's first commercial space station.

Why I follow it: A place in orbit run as a business, not a government outpost, is how working in space stops being rare. I'd like to know whether the first one flies, and who goes.draft for John to rewrite

Bears on a step of my odds: no. Not directly. The nearest step is a hundred people living and working off Earth at once, for pay, which needs many stations like it. (A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for pay)

Next: Launches, 2027 (planned)

• ═ Launches, 2027 (planned) Planned for late 2026; moved on January 20th, 2026. Wikipedia says no earlier than the first three months of 2027, and that it moved from late 2026 on 20 January 2026. A video caption on Vast's page still says May 2026. Vast, Haven-1 · Wikipedia, Haven-1
• ═ Its first crew of four, Vast-1, flies up to stay aboard, no earlier than 2027 (planned) Vast describes a two-week stay; Wikipedia says up to thirty days. Wikipedia, Vast-1 · Vast, Haven-1

Official page · last checked October 21st, 2026