The tree · Energy · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A nuclear reactor runs on the lunar surface for a year
A lunar night lasts two weeks, so any permanent base needs power that does not come from the Sun. A small fission reactor of a few tens of kilowatts is the planned answer; the US program aimed at the end of this decade and, as of 2026, plans delivery of a reactor to the launch pad in the early 2030s. It is the power source that mining, refining, and a permanent outpost assume.
What counts as it having happened
A fission reactor delivering at least forty kilowatts of electricity operates on the lunar surface for twelve continuous months, confirmed by the responsible agency's mission record.
Settled by: The responsible agency's mission record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 80% | 90% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: The schedule has already slipped to the early 2030s and reactor programs slip more than most, but two space agencies and a rival national program are all aimed at it.
Notes
Drafted as a leaf; moved to mid on 2026-09-08 after checking the program's schedule, which has slipped to the early 2030s.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.