The tree · Launch · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again
The first crewed lunar landing since 1972 is scheduled for the next few years, on a lander built for reuse rather than thrown away. It is the near-term marker that the cheap-launch architecture reaches the Moon with people, which every lunar node downstream assumes.
The test: what counts as it having happened
People land on the lunar surface and return safely to lunar orbit aboard a lander whose design is intended for more than one landing, confirmed by the responsible agency's mission record.
Settled by: The responsible agency's mission record
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Two funded landers and a committed agency; a decade of slips still lands inside 2071, and the downside is cancellation after a mishap.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
What the ledger says about this step
- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
-
2026-11-01 Nothing new
Reporting says Artemis III (mid-2027) is now a low Earth orbit lander test and the first crewed landing is Artemis IV, targeted 2028 at the earliest, with both landers not ready before late 2027. No landing and no new event in the leaf window.
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2026-10-25 Nothing new
No crewed landing is scheduled before 2028. Artemis III is an Earth-orbit lander docking test no earlier than late 2027 and the first landing is on Artemis IV, early 2028; no schedule change surfaced in the week.
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2026-10-18 Nothing new
No crewed landing is scheduled before 2028. Artemis III is a 2027 low Earth orbit test with two landers and the first landing is planned for Artemis IV in 2028; no new schedule change surfaced in the week.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'return safely aboard a lander', destination unstated | 'return safely to lunar orbit aboard' the lander | Step 27 outside-model review, item 54 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): crews come back to Earth in a separate capsule, so the lander's return means to lunar orbit. A two-cycle reuse test was declined as a later, different event. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
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what happens next.
The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.