The tree · Launch · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A crew lands on the Moon in a lander designed to fly again
The first crewed lunar landing since 1972 is scheduled for the next few years, on a lander built for reuse rather than thrown away. It is the near-term marker that the cheap-launch architecture reaches the Moon with people, which every lunar node downstream assumes.
What counts as it having happened
People land on the lunar surface and return safely aboard a lander whose design is intended for more than one landing, confirmed by the responsible agency's mission record.
Settled by: The responsible agency's mission record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Two funded landers and a committed agency; a decade of slips still lands inside 2071, and the downside is cancellation after a mishap.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.