The tree · Launch · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit
Everything beyond low Earth orbit on a reusable architecture depends on refilling ships in space, which has been done only at small scale. A hundred-tonne transfer is the size that a lunar landing or a Mars departure needs, and the demonstrations are scheduled within a few years.
The test: what counts as it having happened
At least one hundred tonnes of propellant, counted as net propellant received by the receiving vehicle, are transferred between two vehicles in orbit over one docked period, confirmed by the operator and by an independent party (a customer agency's public record or an independent audit of the mass accounting).
Settled by: The operator's mission record and the independent confirmation (a customer agency's milestone acceptance or an independent audit)
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 93% | 95% | 97% | 97% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Contracted, funded, and scheduled within a few years, with the lunar program depending on it; the risk is delay, not failure.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
What the ledger says about this step
- Nine steps were added to the tree, seven of them new requirements on the chain, which is most of why the headline fell in this run 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
-
2026-11-01 Nothing new
No ship-to-ship transfer has been reported; the demonstration is still unscheduled as of September 2026 per a secondary source. Nothing found since October 25th, 2026.
-
2026-10-25 No change
SpaceX's earnings update of October 20th, 2026 reportedly put the first orbital propellant-transfer demonstration in the 2027 plan, with no date, so the demonstration has slipped past 2026. Only trade press (New Space Economy) carries the report, no number moves, and a first demonstration is far below the hundred tonnes the criterion needs.
-
2026-10-18 Nothing new
No ship-to-ship transfer has flown and no firm date was announced; the demonstration is listed for late 2026 at the earliest, and a hundred tonnes is far beyond a first demonstration.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'in a single operation', confirmed by the customer agency's record | net propellant received, over one docked period, confirmed by the operator and an independent party (a customer agency or an independent audit) | Step 27 outside-model review, item 62 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): 'a single operation' was undefined and a commercial transfer with no agency customer could not have counted. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | depends_on | none | L-cryogenic-propellant-stored-in-orbit-six-months-and-used | Step 27 outside-model review, items 10 and 52 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): long-duration storage is the unproven half of orbital refilling, and the storage leaf gates the transfer node. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.