The tree · Launch · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A hundred tonnes of propellant are pumped from one spacecraft to another in orbit
Everything beyond low Earth orbit on a reusable architecture depends on refilling ships in space, which has been done only at small scale. A hundred-tonne transfer is the size that a lunar landing or a Mars departure needs, and the demonstrations are scheduled within a few years.
What counts as it having happened
At least one hundred tonnes of propellant are transferred between two vehicles in orbit in a single operation, confirmed by the operator and by the customer agency's public record.
Settled by: The operator's mission record and the customer agency's milestone acceptance
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 93% | 95% | 97% | 97% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Contracted, funded, and scheduled within a few years, with the lunar program depending on it; the risk is delay, not failure.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.