The tree · Launch · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A heavy launcher recovers both of its stages intact from one orbital flight
Full reusability means the booster and the ship both come back to be flown again. The booster has been caught at its launch tower since 2024; the ship, which comes back from orbital speed, had only been landed in the ocean as of July 2026. A first tower catch was planned for late August 2026, then deferred: on 2026-08-20 the company's chief executive said the catch would come "in a few months", and the flight itself slipped to no earlier than mid-September. The first flight to bring both stages back intact is the day the cost curve everything else assumes actually starts.
What counts as it having happened
On a single orbital flight, a launch vehicle's first stage and its second stage are both recovered intact for reuse (caught, landed, or otherwise returned undamaged), confirmed by the operator and independent observation.
Settled by: The operator's flight record and independent observation
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 96% | 97% | 98% | 98% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Booster catch routine since 2024 and the ship catch deferred by months, not years; the residual risk is a program cancellation, not physics.
Notes
Checked 2026-09-08: no upper-stage catch was attempted in August 2026; the attempt was deferred by a few months and the flight slipped to mid-September at the earliest. Still open. Re-check at the first quarterly scan.
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The record itself is data/L-launch.toml in the public repository.