The tree · Link 6 of 8
Motive
That there is an economic reason for large numbers of people to be out there.
5 events, 5 with a number. Listed by how soon they could be decided: the ones that could go either way by 2031 first, then the ones that take a decade or two, then the ones that play out over the whole window.
- Baseline
- Moderate extension
- Strong extension
- Radical extension
- Escape velocity
What would move this
ranked by what a yes is worth to the headline, by 2071The headline stands at 0.5% by 2071. If one of these settled tomorrow and nothing else changed, the whole tree is played out again and the headline lands where the figure says. This is the site saying in advance what a milestone is worth, before it happens: when one of them lands, the entry that records it quotes what was predicted here. These come from playing the tree out 20,000 times per scenario, which is a throw of the dice: anything smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise, so read the order rather than the last decimal.
- A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for pay +0.1 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
- Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profit +0.1 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
- A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
2 other open steps under this factor are worth nothing to the headline, because the headline does not rest on them at any remove: A commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigation, A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the ground. Most belong to the tiers above the one the headline asks about.
What has moved here
from the ledger- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- Nine steps were added to the tree, seven of them new requirements on the chain, which is most of why the headline fell in this run 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- A kilowatt beamed from orbit to the ground came down: the one demonstration so far was milliwatts, and the business case may never justify the aperture 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
- Something made off Earth being sold at a profit was raised, given its requirements, while two new requirements were put under it 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
- A hundred people working off Earth at once came down, and the test became a year of months rather than a single day 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
Every step under motive
5 in all- A commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigation M-paying-customer-for-work-done-in-orbit85%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19By 2031 Not yet
- A commercial syndicate insures a privately owned lunar asset for a million-dollar premium M-commercial-insurance-written-on-a-private-lunar-asset70%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20By 2031 Not yet
- A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the ground M-power-beamed-from-orbit-to-ground-at-kilowatt-scale45%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19By 2031 Not yet
- A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for pay M-hundred-people-working-off-earth-for-pay50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Within 20 years Not yet needed for Outpost
- Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profit M-off-earth-product-sold-at-a-profit65%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Whole window Not yet needed for Slow Expanse