The tree · M
Motive
That there is an economic reason for large numbers of people to be out there.
4 nodes, 4 with probabilities. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A commercial customer pays for a service performed in orbit, other than communications, imaging, or navigation M-paying-customer-for-work-done-in-orbit85%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the ground M-power-beamed-from-orbit-to-ground-at-kilowatt-scale75%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A hundred people are living and working off Earth at the same time, for pay M-hundred-people-working-off-earth-for-pay60%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds T1
- Something mined or made off Earth is sold at a profit M-off-earth-product-sold-at-a-profit55%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds T3