The tree · Motive · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A spacecraft beams at least a kilowatt of power to a receiver on the ground
Space-based solar power, if it ever pays, is a reason to build very large things in orbit and to have people maintaining them. Small demonstrations have transmitted watts. A kilowatt received on the ground is the step that makes the engineering argument real, and several agencies plan demonstrations within a few years.
What counts as it having happened
A spacecraft in orbit transmits power to a receiver on Earth's surface that delivers at least one kilowatt of usable electrical power, reported in a peer-reviewed publication or an agency mission record.
Settled by: The peer-reviewed publication or the agency's mission record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 85% | 92% | 95% | 96% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Demonstrations at watts have flown and agency kilowatt demonstrations are planned, but every one so far has slipped, and the economic case may never justify the step.
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The record itself is data/M-motive.toml in the public repository.