The tree · Energy · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
A single spacecraft generates and uses a megawatt of electricity in orbit
The space station, the largest thing ever flown, makes about a tenth of a megawatt. Orbital data centres, large electric tugs, and any industrial process in space start at a megawatt. Several companies plan megawatt-class solar spacecraft within a few years, so this is the near-term marker that power in space is scaling.
The test: what counts as it having happened
One spacecraft in orbit generates and delivers to its own working loads at least one megawatt of electrical power, averaged over each orbit, for thirty days, with onboard storage allowed to carry the loads through eclipse and with preloaded energy and artificial dump loads not counted, confirmed by the operator and consistent with independent observation of the vehicle.
Settled by: The operator's records and independent observation
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 96% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Several companies have megawatt-class vehicles funded for the late 2020s, and orbital computing gives the power a customer.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
What the ledger says about this step
- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
No megawatt-class spacecraft flew in the past week; the largest flown orbital compute hardware found is Google Suncatcher at about 1 kW (launched October 1st, 2026), and 1 MW designs (Cowboy Space, December 2028 target) are plans.
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2026-10-25 Nothing new
No spacecraft has generated a megawatt in orbit. The largest flying system found is the 60 kilowatt roll-out array power system tested for NASA's Gateway; megawatt solar and reactor projects (Overview Energy, Virtus Solis, DRACO, Antares) are demonstrations for 2027 or later.
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2026-10-18 Nothing new
No spacecraft has generated a megawatt in orbit. The largest flying system found is a 60 kilowatt roll-out array power system tested for NASA's Gateway, and megawatt solar and reactor concepts are all targets for 2027 or later.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | 'generates and consumes at least one megawatt ... continuously for thirty days' | averaging at least one megawatt per orbit, delivered to the spacecraft's working loads, over thirty days; storage across eclipses allowed, preloaded energy and dump loads excluded | Step 27 outside-model review, item 66 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): a solar spacecraft in low orbit spends a third of every orbit in shadow, so 'continuously' excluded the very vehicles the description says are funded. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Notes
Step 27, item 12 (September 19th, 2026): E-megawatt-heat-rejected-for-thirty-days-in-vacuum is a sibling that resolves first, not a dependency; a megawatt spacecraft that runs thirty days has by construction rejected the heat.
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The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.