The tree · Energy · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A fusion power plant delivers net electricity to a grid
The point where fusion stops being an experiment: a plant that puts more electricity onto a grid than it draws, for long enough to count. Several private plants are scheduled to try in the early 2030s. Fusion on the ground is the technology base that any fusion drive, and any large off-Earth power plant that cannot rely on the Sun, would be built from.
What counts as it having happened
A fusion power plant exports net electrical energy to a public grid over a continuous period of at least thirty days, with net export confirmed by the grid operator's metering.
Settled by: The grid operator's metering record and the plant operator's report
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 70% | 85% | 93% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Several private plants target the early 2030s; first attempts usually miss, but forty-five years and several routes make a first success more likely than not.
Notes
Drafted with a hard dependency on cheap superconducting wire; removed at step 7 (2026-09-08) because only the magnet route needs it and laser and other routes do not. The link stays in the mechanism of the fusion drive node. Now depends on a plant having started construction, which has happened.
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The record itself is data/E-energy.toml in the public repository.