The tree · W
Window
That I am alive on the date in question.
7 nodes, 6 with probabilities, 1 resolved. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A cell-rejuvenation treatment based on partial reprogramming is given to people in a registered trial W-partial-reprogramming-reaches-human-trialsresolved yes2026-06-09Leaf Resolved: yes
- A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved for W-regulator-accepts-aging-as-an-indication55%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Leaf Open
- The large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longer W-dog-rapamycin-trial-reports-longer-life45%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Leaf Open
- A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at once W-composite-aging-trial-positive-in-humans70%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Mid Open
- The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one disease W-first-drug-approved-to-slow-aging60%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Mid Open
- A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarter W-human-therapy-cuts-death-rate-in-older-adults20%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open
- Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on record W-verified-human-lifespan-passes-1225%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open Long shot