The tree · Link 1 of 8
Window
That I am alive on the date in question.
My whole timeline rests on this one. For the wider question of when medicine starts outrunning ageing, see Outrunning Ageing.
8 events, 7 with a number, 1 already happened. Listed by how soon they could be decided: the ones that could go either way by 2031 first, then the ones that take a decade or two, then the ones that play out over the whole window.
What would move this
ranked by what a yes is worth to the headline, by 2071Nothing here moves the headline directly. How long I live is the dial rather than a link in the chain: it is the question the five scenarios ask, so these steps change which scenario looks plausible rather than the number under any one of them.
What has moved here
from the ledger- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- Nine steps were added to the tree, seven of them new requirements on the chain, which is most of why the headline fell in this run 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- The record human lifespan being passed went from a long shot to better than even by 2095, because the demographers say it needs no breakthrough 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
- A therapy cutting the death rate of older adults by a quarter was raised in the long windows, where both reviewers said it was too low 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
- The first person was given a cell-rejuvenation treatment in a registered trial, which moves the treatment out of the laboratory 2026-09-19 Settled
Every step under window
8 in all- A cell-rejuvenation treatment based on partial reprogramming is given to people in a registered trial W-partial-reprogramming-reaches-human-trialshappened2026-06-09By 2031 Happened
- A drug regulator accepts a biological measure of aging as a trial's primary endpoint W-regulator-accepts-a-biological-measure-of-aging-as-a-trial-endpoint55%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20By 2031 Not yet
- A major drug regulator accepts slowing aging as something a drug can be approved for W-regulator-accepts-aging-as-an-indication55%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-08By 2031 Not yet
- The large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longer W-dog-rapamycin-trial-reports-longer-life45%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-08By 2031 Not yet
- A randomized human trial shows one drug delays several age-related diseases at once W-composite-aging-trial-positive-in-humans70%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-08Within 20 years Not yet
- The first drug is approved whose purpose is to slow aging, not to treat one disease W-first-drug-approved-to-slow-aging60%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-08Within 20 years Not yet
- A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarter W-human-therapy-cuts-death-rate-in-older-adults25%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Whole window Not yet
- Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on record W-verified-human-lifespan-passes-12230%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Whole window Not yet