The tree · Window · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
Someone verifiably lives past 122, the longest human life on record
Jeanne Calment's 122 years has stood since 1997 and no verified case has come within three years of it since. A verified case beyond it is a demographic milestone: the first sign that maximum human lifespan is moving, whatever moves it. Demographers expect the record to fall this century on numbers alone, because far more people now reach 110 each decade and each of them gets the same run of coin flips; a therapy that lowers late-life mortality would bring it sooner and take it further. The node marks the ceiling moving, not what moved it.
The test: what counts as it having happened
A person's age at death, or current age while living, exceeds 122 years and 164 days, verified by the Gerontology Research Group or an equivalent body with continuous documentary evidence of identity from birth.
Settled by: Gerontology Research Group validated supercentenarian records
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 40% | 60% | 85% | 92% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: The record needs one run of a dozen coin flips past 110 among a fast-growing number of people who get there; demographers put the record falling by 2100 as near-certain on numbers alone, but it has stood twenty-nine years, the next-best case is three years short, and some analyses find mortality still rising past 110, so well short of that. Feeds no tier.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
What the ledger says about this step
- The record human lifespan being passed went from a long shot to better than even by 2095, because the demographers say it needs no breakthrough 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
Jeanne Calment's record of 122 years 164 days stands; the oldest living person is Ethel Caterham of the UK, born August 21st, 1909 (about 117), far short of the threshold.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
The oldest validated living person is Ethel Caterham of the UK, born August 21st, 1909, about 117 years old, well short of the 122 years 164 days needed; Jeanne Calment's record is unchanged.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | resolution | documentary evidence of birth | continuous documentary evidence of identity from birth | Step 27 outside-model review, item 36 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): identity continuity, not only a birth record, is what the validating bodies test. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | description | passing the record was presented as proof that a therapy had raised the biological ceiling | the node is the first sign that maximum lifespan is moving, whatever moves it; description, rationale and breaking point rewritten | Step 27 outside-model review, item 36: a record break does not show that medicine raised a biological ceiling. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | long_shot | true | dropped | Step 27 outside-model review, item 37 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): on the demographics the record falling needs no breakthrough, so the node is not 99 percent dreaming. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
| 2026-09-19 | probability | 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.15 / 0.45 / 0.60 | 0.30 / 0.40 / 0.60 / 0.85 / 0.92 | Step 27 outside-model review, item 37: the first rationale reasoned from a fifty percent mortality plateau alone and missed that the number of people reaching 110 is growing fast (Pearce and Raftery 2021, verified); moved partway toward the reviewer. Decided September 19th, 2026. |
Notes
Checked September 8th, 2026: the record is 122 years and 164 days (1997); the second-longest verified life is 119 years and 107 days (2022), just over three years short, and the third is 119 years and 97 days (1999). Step 27, item 37 (September 19th, 2026): Pearce and Raftery (Demographic Research, 2021) give a greater than 99 percent probability that the record is broken by 2100 with no rejuvenation breakthrough; abstract fetched September 19th, 2026.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.