The tree · Window · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
A treatment is shown in a large trial to cut the death rate of older adults by at least a quarter
The result that would make the moderate scenario (a window around 2080) the expected case rather than a hope: a therapy that reduces all-cause mortality in people over sixty-five by a quarter or more over the trial period. Nothing yet approved comes close; statins and blood pressure drugs move single causes of death by smaller amounts.
What counts as it having happened
A randomized, placebo-controlled trial in adults aged sixty-five or over, followed for at least five years, reports that deaths from any cause fell by twenty-five percent or more in the treated group, published in a peer-reviewed journal and not later retracted.
Settled by: The trial's peer-reviewed primary publication
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 25% | 35% | 60% | 70% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: A quarter off all deaths in the over-65s is beyond anything approved; one in five by 2071 reflects that reprogramming and combination therapies are real but unproven in humans.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.