The large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longer

The Dog Aging Project's TRIAD trial gives rapamycin, the best-studied life-extending drug in mice, to hundreds of pet dogs in a placebo-controlled design and follows them for years. It is the first lifespan trial of an aging drug in a large mammal living in ordinary conditions, and its result is due within a few years. A positive result is the single strongest near-term signal that mouse longevity results carry over to animals like us.

The test: what counts as it having happened

The primary lifespan analysis of the TRIAD trial, or of an equivalent placebo-controlled lifespan trial of rapamycin in hundreds of companion dogs, published in a peer-reviewed journal, reports a statistically significant increase in lifespan for the rapamycin group over placebo.

Settled by: The Dog Aging Project's published TRIAD results, or the equivalent trial's primary publication

The odds, by how long I live

baselineto 2071 ± 8	moderateto 2080	strongto 2095	radicalto 2136	openno deadline
45%	45%	45%	45%	45%

Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 8th, 2026.

Why these numbers: One trial, one readout around 2031: the mouse evidence is strong and a dog pilot showed heart benefits, but lifespan trials fail more often than they succeed, so a little under even; the same in every scenario because the window does not change when the trial reports. Held at 0.45 on September 19th, 2026 (step 27, item 9): the funding lapse that worried one reviewer is over, and the criterion now names a class of trial rather than one project.

What this one is worth

Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.

What the ledger says about this step

Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed

The last 3 checks

Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.

2026-11-01 Nothing new

No TRIAD or equivalent lifespan results found; a December 2025 Dog Aging Project paper and early 2026 coverage describe the trial as still in progress.
2026-10-25 Nothing new

No TRIAD lifespan results have been published. The Dog Aging Project's methods paper of December 2025 says the study is still in progress, with results expected later this decade.
2026-10-18 Nothing new

TRIAD has published no lifespan result; the newest item is the December 2025 design paper, and results are expected later this decade.

Revisions

Date	Field	From	To	Why
2026-09-19	resolution	the TRIAD trial's primary lifespan analysis only	the TRIAD trial or an equivalent placebo-controlled lifespan trial in hundreds of companion dogs	Step 27 outside-model review, item 4 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): the node is about the result, not the project, so one project's funding cannot doom it. Decided September 19th, 2026.

Notes

Step 27, item 31 (September 19th, 2026), recorded as a note with no node change: a positive dog trial is evidence, not a prerequisite, for human success, so this node has no dependents; with item 4 the node names a class of trial, so a single failed readout no longer resolves it no. The same caution applies to the new dependency under item 1 (the biological-measure endpoint node).

Think this estimate is wrong? Here's how to tell me, and what happens next. The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.