The tree · Window · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
The large dog trial of rapamycin reports that treated dogs live measurably longer
The Dog Aging Project's TRIAD trial gives rapamycin, the best-studied life-extending drug in mice, to hundreds of pet dogs in a placebo-controlled design and follows them for years. It is the first lifespan trial of an aging drug in a large mammal living in ordinary conditions, and its result is due within a few years. A positive result is the single strongest near-term signal that mouse longevity results carry over to animals like us.
What counts as it having happened
The trial's primary lifespan analysis, published in a peer-reviewed journal, reports a statistically significant increase in lifespan for the rapamycin group over placebo.
Settled by: The Dog Aging Project's published TRIAD results
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-08.
Why these numbers: One trial, one readout around 2031: the mouse evidence is strong and a dog pilot showed heart benefits, but lifespan trials fail more often than they succeed, so a little under even; the same in every scenario because the window does not change when the trial reports.
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The record itself is data/W-window.toml in the public repository.