The tree · R
Regime
That the political and legal conditions let a multi-decade build survive elections, downturns, and wars.
5 nodes, 5 with probabilities. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government R-crewed-lunar-program-outlives-two-changes-of-president75%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds T1
- Space spending recovers within three years of a recession R-space-funding-holds-through-a-recession80%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open
- The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite tests R-binding-ban-on-debris-creating-anti-satellite-tests30%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds T4
- An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residents, with no return scheduled R-off-earth-site-accepts-permanent-residents50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds A3
- The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth R-off-earth-resource-rights-recognised-by-major-powers45%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds T3