Regime

The headline stands at 0.5% by 2071. If one of these settled tomorrow and nothing else changed, the whole tree is played out again and the headline lands where the figure says. This is the site saying in advance what a milestone is worth, before it happens: when one of them lands, the entry that records it quotes what was predicted here. These come from playing the tree out 20,000 times per scenario, which is a throw of the dice: anything smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise, so read the order rather than the last decimal.

• The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth +0.2 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.7% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backer too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• Space spending recovers within three years of the next recession too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)

2 other open steps under this factor are worth nothing to the headline, because the headline does not rest on them at any remove: The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite tests, An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residents. Most belong to the tiers above the one the headline asks about.

• Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
• The test for space spending recovering after a recession was rewritten to wait for the next recession, because on its own words it had already passed in 2020 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
• An off-Earth site accepting permanent residents was raised: one permissive site anywhere resolves it 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
• The test for space spending surviving a recession was rewritten to ask whether funding comes back, not whether it never dips 2026-09-19 The tree itself changed
• The test for a lunar programme surviving a change of government was rewritten to count any nation's programme, not one country's 2026-09-19 The tree itself changed

• A crewed lunar program keeps flying across two changes of its government R-crewed-lunar-program-outlives-two-changes-of-president
  75%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Replaced
• A crewed lunar program, government or commercial, keeps flying across two changes of its principal backer R-crewed-lunar-program-outlives-two-changes-of-backer
  78%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-25
  Within 20 years Not yet
• Space spending recovers within three years of the next recession R-space-funding-holds-through-a-recession
  80%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet
• The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite tests R-binding-ban-on-debris-creating-anti-satellite-tests
  30%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet
• The United States and China recognise each other's keep-out zones around off-Earth installations R-us-and-china-recognise-keep-out-zones-around-off-earth-installations
  50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20
  Within 20 years Not yet
• A space traffic authority among the major powers can enforce rules on manoeuvres and launch windows R-space-traffic-management-authority-among-major-powers
  35%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20
  Whole window Not yet needed for Slow Expanse
• An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residents R-off-earth-site-accepts-permanent-residents
  60%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet needed for Lives off Earth
• The United States and China both recognise the same rules for owning what is mined off Earth R-off-earth-resource-rights-recognised-by-major-powers
  45%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet needed for Slow Expanse