The tree · Regime · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
The major space powers are bound by a ban on debris-creating anti-satellite tests
A single war in orbit, or even one more test that shatters a satellite, could make low orbit unusable for decades and stop everything above it. A binding agreement among the powers that can do it is the clearest sign that orbit is being treated as shared infrastructure rather than a battlefield.
What counts as it having happened
The United States, China, and Russia are all party to a legally binding agreement prohibiting anti-satellite tests that create orbital debris, and the agreement is in force.
Settled by: The treaty text and the depositary's record of parties
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 40% | 55% | 75% | 80% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Unilateral pledges exist, a binding three-party treaty does not; it needs either a scare in orbit or a detente, and Russia is the holdout.
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The record itself is data/R-regime.toml in the public repository.