The tree · Regime · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
An off-Earth site accepts people as permanent residents, with no return scheduled
What separates living off Earth (the A3 tier) from working there on rotation (A2). Early settlements may be work camps by policy for decades, with every person on a return schedule, even after the biology allows staying. The node resolves when some site's own rules allow residence with no return planned and someone has actually lived that way for years. Choosing to stay is John's decision, not the world's, and belongs with the choice points once the access branch firms up.
What counts as it having happened
Under an off-Earth site's published residence terms, at least one person has lived there continuously for three years with no scheduled return to Earth, confirmed by the operator or governing body.
Settled by: The site's published residence terms and the operator's or governing body's record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 60% | 75% | 90% | 93% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Once the biology allows it, the rule is a liability and policy question; work-camp terms could persist for decades after staying becomes safe.
Notes
Added 2026-09-08 (agreed by John) so that A3 has a node distinguishing it from A2. Placed under regime because permanent residence is a rule somebody sets, not a technology.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
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how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/R-regime.toml in the public repository.