The tree · Biology · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
Humans can live off Earth long term, by partial gravity or by a spinning habitat
The hedge on biology, as one node so it has a name and a number. Resolves if either route does: people stay healthy for a year in partial gravity, or a rotating habitat with Earth-normal gravity is occupied for a year. The system tiers that need long-term living require this node rather than either route alone.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Either of the two route nodes it depends on has resolved yes.
Settled by: The resolving route node's own source
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 8th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either route does; certainty here means the number is carried entirely by the two route nodes.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
The last 3 checks
Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.
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2026-11-01 Nothing new
Derived node, no route node resolved and nothing in the past five weeks bears on either route. Only plans and forecasts for lunar bases and rotating stations were found.
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2026-10-04 Nothing new
Neither route node has resolved; no milestone for either appeared in the window.
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2026-09-19 Nothing new
This node resolves only if B-human-year-in-partial-gravity-without-disqualifying-harm or B-earth-gravity-habitat-occupied-for-a-year resolves; both were checked above and remain open, so nothing to search independently.
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/B-biology.toml in the public repository.