The tree · B
Biology
That humans can live, and eventually reproduce, in partial gravity and deep-space radiation.
9 nodes, 9 with probabilities. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A crew lives for a month in a spinning spacecraft that produces artificial gravity B-crewed-spin-gravity-demonstration70%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Leaf Open
- A mammal is conceived, born, and weaned in partial gravity B-mammal-born-and-weaned-in-partial-gravity80%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Leaf Open
- A crew off Earth lives for a year with most of its food, water, and air recycled on site B-closed-loop-life-support-year-off-earth50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Mid Open feeds T2
- A person lives a full year in partial gravity and comes home without disqualifying harm B-human-year-in-partial-gravity-without-disqualifying-harm35%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Mid Open
- A shielding system flown in space cuts the deep-space radiation dose to a crew by half B-shielding-halves-deep-space-radiation-dose50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Mid Open feeds T3
- A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhood B-human-child-born-off-earth15%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open feeds T4
- A treatment is approved that makes people substantially more resistant to chronic space radiation B-radiation-resistance-treatment-for-humans8%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open Long shot
- Humans can live off Earth long term, by partial gravity or by a spinning habitat B-long-term-off-earth-living-by-some-route100%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open feeds T2
- People live for a year in a spinning habitat with Earth-normal gravity B-earth-gravity-habitat-occupied-for-a-year25%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-08Root Open