A child is born off Earth and raised there through early childhood

The marker of a Full Expanse: a Belt population with families in it, not only workers on rotation. Tier 4 requires it. Early settlements may forbid it for years, so it resolves late even if the biology allows it.

The test: what counts as it having happened

A child is born at a site off Earth and lives there continuously to at least age five, with the birth and residence publicly documented by the operating agency or company.

Settled by: Public records of the operating agency or company, confirmed by independent reporting

The odds, by how long I live

baselineto 2071 ± 8	moderateto 2080	strongto 2095	radicalto 2136	openno deadline
15%	22%	35%	65%	75%

Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 8th, 2026.

Why these numbers: Given either the animal result and the human year in partial gravity, or a year-long Earth-gravity habitat, the remaining barriers are policy and ethics, which early settlements are likely to hold for decades; raising a child needs a settlement, not a base.

What this one is worth

Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.

What the ledger says about this step

A child born off Earth no longer needs the partial-gravity milestones if the child lives in an Earth-gravity habitat 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed

The last 3 checks

Once a week the tree is read against the news, node by node, against the test above. Open a line to see what that week held. Every check ever made on this node is on the Radar page.

2026-11-01 Nothing new

No birth off Earth and no settlement able to host one was found. SpaceBorn United only plans a mouse-embryo orbital mission in 2026, and no outcome was reported.
2026-10-04 Nothing new

No child has been born off Earth. A SpaceBorn United reproduction consortium met September 26th, 2026 to September 28th, 2026 in Amsterdam, which is a roadmap meeting, not the event.
2026-09-19 Nothing new

No pregnancy or birth off Earth was reported in the window; only speculative commentary pieces exist, confirming no such birth has occurred as of September 2026.

Revisions

Date	Field	From	To	Why
2026-09-19	depends_on	depends_on: the mammal node and the human partial-gravity year, both required	depends_on_any: [the mammal node and the human partial-gravity year] or [B-earth-gravity-habitat-occupied-for-a-year]	Step 27 outside-model review, item 44 (docs/reviews/2026-09-19-rulings.md): the node required both partial-gravity milestones even for a child living in an Earth-gravity habitat, so the tree's own hedge did not reach it; the prerequisites now match the route. Written as two either-groups, which is the same logic in the schema's form. Decided September 19th, 2026. Item 45's health clause was declined: a child's medical outcomes are not public records.
2026-09-25	description	'The marker that separates a settlement from a work camp, and the criterion Tier 2 uses.'	'The marker of a Full Expanse: a Belt population with families in it, not only workers on rotation. Tier 4 requires it.'	Methodology pass item 99 (docs/methodology-pass-2026-09-25.md), decided September 25th, 2026: the child left Tier 2's requirements on September 19th, 2026 and has now left Tier 2's definition for Tier 4's, so the description follows. Text only; no number changed.

Notes

Moved from Tier 2 to Tier 4 on September 19th, 2026 (decided at the first run). Route fix September 19th, 2026 under step 27, item 44.

Think this estimate is wrong? Here's how to tell me, and what happens next. The record itself is data/B-biology.toml in the public repository.