The tree · Beside the chain
Contact Clause
That we meet a mind that is not ours, whether a machine that has outgrown us or something of non-human origin. The dream underneath the project, published beside the equation and never multiplied into it.
5 events, 5 with a number. These five follow the same rules as every other event, but no milestone needs them and the headline number never multiplies them in.
What would move this
ranked by what a yes is worth to the headline, by 2071Nothing here moves the headline, by design. The Contact Clause sits beside the equation and is never multiplied into it, so however these five rungs turn out, the number at the top of the site does not change.
What has moved here
from the ledger- OpenAI posted hundreds of machine-generated maths results on October 6th, 2026, but none is peer reviewed yet, so the first Contact Clause rung stays where it was 2026-10-11 Widely reported, moved nothing
- The Contact Clause's two top rungs were renamed for the event each criterion tests: a message from elsewhere is understood, and a real exchange with a machine mind 2026-09-25 The tree itself changed
- Forty-one steps had their criteria tightened so that two readers would agree when each has happened, with no number moved for that alone 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- The first rung of the Contact Clause was rewritten to ask for a machine-originated idea, because as written it had already been met by a brute-force proof in 2016 2026-09-20 The tree itself changed
- The fourth rung, Communion, came down and became a checkable test: a decoded signal applied to a new result 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
- The third rung of the Contact Clause, another intelligence detected, came down: the search rests on technosignatures and sixty years of silence 2026-09-20 Changed my mind
Two branches, side by side
each rung under the one it depends onThe dream has two forms, and each has its own ladder ending in an exchange: one with something not made by us, and one with a mind we built. Neither is multiplied into the headline. The number beside each rung is its chance by 2071 if the rung under it happens.
- 2%baseline scenario
- 4%baseline scenario
- 95%baseline scenario
- 80%baseline scenario
- 3%baseline scenario
Every step under contact clause
5 in all- 95%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20By 2031 Not yet
- 80%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-20Within 20 years Not yet
- 4%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Whole window Not yet Long shot
- 3%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-25Whole window Not yet Long shot
- 2%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19Whole window Not yet Long shot