The tree · Contact Clause · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years

Humans learn from it

Open

Beyond receiving a result: humans come to understand something conceptual they could not have reached, in a way that changes how human science is done.

What counts as it having happened

A concept or method that originated with an artificial system, and that the record shows human researchers had not reached, is adopted as a standard part of how a scientific field works, as evidenced by its use in textbooks or in the majority of new papers in that field.

Settled by: The field's textbooks and publication record

Probability, by longevity scenario

baseline2071 ± 8moderate2080strong2095radical2136openno deadline
80%88%93%96%97%

Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.

Why these numbers: Adoption lags production by a decade or two, but forty-five years is long enough for one field to reorganise around one machine-born method.


Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly? Open an issue about it, or read how critique gets folded into the tree. The record itself is data/C-contact.toml in the public repository.