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The headline stands at 0.5% by 2071. If one of these settled tomorrow and nothing else changed, the whole tree is played out again and the headline lands where the figure says. This is the site saying in advance what a milestone is worth, before it happens: when one of them lands, the entry that records it quotes what was predicted here. These come from playing the tree out 20,000 times per scenario, which is a throw of the dice: anything smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise, so read the order rather than the last decimal.

• Working in or for the off-Earth industry, by either route +0.3 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.8% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• Holding a role whose holders go on off-Earth rotations +0.3 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.7% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from my current career +0.2 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.5% if it turned out no (too small to tell apart from chance)
• A role in my current career whose holders rotate off Earth +0.2 points if yes 0.5% today · 0.6% if it happened · 0.0% if it turned out no (−0.5 points)
• I complete my current training program too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.5% if it turned out no (too small to tell apart from chance)
• Companies sell survival and emergency training to commercial spaceflight crews too small to tell apart from chance if yes 0.5% today · 0.5% if it happened · 0.5% if it turned out no (too small to tell apart from chance)

5 other open steps under this factor are worth nothing to the headline, because the headline does not rest on them at any remove: Someone moves from the role I am training for into training spaceflight crews, A seat to orbit is sold to a private person for under a million dollars, A first flight to space, by purchase or by the job, This tree's quarterly scan is produced by an AI system with a human only approving the changes, A technical paper on a subject in this tree is published by one person working with AI collaborators. Most belong to the tiers above the one the headline asks about.

• A private passenger in his seventies flew to the space station and came home, which settles that a seat is not closed off by age 2026-09-19 Settled

• A private person aged sixty-five or older flies to orbit A-private-orbital-flight-by-someone-aged-65-or-over
  happened2022-04-25
  By 2031 Happened
• A technical paper on a subject in this tree is published by one person working with AI collaborators A-technical-publication-produced-with-ai-collaborators
  50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• Companies sell survival and emergency training to commercial spaceflight crews A-commercial-crew-survival-training-industry-exists
  50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• I complete my current training program A-current-training-completed
  85%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• Someone moves from the role I am training for into training spaceflight crews A-someone-from-current-role-hired-into-spaceflight-training
  65%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• This tree's quarterly scan is produced by an AI system with a human only approving the changes A-tree-maintains-itself-with-human-approval-only
  90%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  By 2031 Not yet
• A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from my current career A-civilian-spaceflight-training-role-obtained
  50%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet
• A seat to orbit is sold to a private person for under a million dollars A-orbital-seat-sold-under-one-million-dollars
  60%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet
• Leave at the six-year mark into civilian space or defence work A-leave-at-six-years-into-civilian-space-work
  alternativemy own decision, never given a probability
  Within 20 years Not yet My decision
• Stay past the six-year mark of the current contract A-stay-past-six-years
  current planmy own decision, never given a probability
  Within 20 years Not yet My decision
• Working in or for the off-Earth industry, by either route A-working-in-or-for-the-off-earth-industry
  100%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Within 20 years Not yet needed for Contributes from Earth
• A first flight to space, by purchase or by the job A-first-spaceflight
  100%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet needed for Has flown
• A role in my current career whose holders rotate off Earth A-current-career-role-with-off-earth-rotation-obtained
  25%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet
• Holding a role whose holders go on off-Earth rotations A-in-a-role-whose-holders-rotate-off-earth
  40%baseline scenario, as of 2026-09-19
  Whole window Not yet needed for Works off Earth on rotation