The tree · A
Access
That I personally have a pathway in, given my training, health, and career.
14 nodes, 11 with probabilities, 1 resolved. Listed leaves first (could resolve within five years), then mid-range, then the ones on the scale of the whole window.
- A private person aged sixty-five or older flies to orbit A-private-orbital-flight-by-someone-aged-65-or-overresolved yes2022-04-25Leaf Resolved: yes
- A technical paper on a subject in this tree is published by one person working with AI collaborators A-technical-publication-produced-with-ai-collaborators50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- Companies sell survival and emergency training to commercial spaceflight crews A-commercial-crew-survival-training-industry-exists50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- Graduation from the survival-specialist training pipeline A-pipeline-graduation85%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- Someone moves from military survival instruction into training spaceflight crews A-military-survival-instructor-hired-into-spaceflight-training65%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- This tree's quarterly scan is produced by an AI system with a human only approving the changes A-tree-maintains-itself-with-human-approval-only90%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Leaf Open
- A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from military survival instruction A-civilian-spaceflight-training-role-obtained50%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open
- A seat to orbit is sold to a private person for under a million dollars A-orbital-seat-sold-under-one-million-dollars60%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open
- Re-enlist at the six-year mark A-reenlist-at-six-yearscurrent planchoice point, never given a probabilityMid Open Choice point
- Separate at the six-year mark into civilian space or defence work A-separate-at-six-years-into-civilian-space-workalternativechoice point, never given a probabilityMid Open Choice point
- Working in or for the off-Earth industry, by either route A-working-in-or-for-the-off-earth-industry100%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Mid Open feeds A0
- A first flight to space, by purchase or by the job A-first-spaceflight100%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds A1
- A military role whose holders rotate off Earth A-military-role-with-off-earth-rotation-obtained25%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open
- Holding a role whose holders go on off-Earth rotations A-in-a-role-whose-holders-rotate-off-earth40%baseline scenario, estimated 2026-09-19Root Open feeds A2