Working in or for the off-Earth industry, by either route

What the A0 tier requires: a role in or for the industry, whichever route led to it. One node with a name so the tier file stays a plain list.

The test: what counts as it having happened

Either route node it depends on has resolved yes.

Settled by: The resolving route node's own source

The odds, by how long I live

baselineto 2071 ± 8	moderateto 2080	strongto 2095	radicalto 2136	openno deadline
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.

Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either route does; certainty here means the number is carried entirely by the two route nodes, as with the biology hedge.

What this one is worth

If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.8% (+0.3 points). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).

Longevity scenario	baseline2071 ± 8	moderate2080	strong2095	radical2136	openno deadline
The headline as it stands	0.5%	1.2%	3.8%	11%	15%
If this settled yes now	0.8%	1.5%	5.0%	15%	22%
If this settled no now	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run 2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about 0.10 points is inside the noise rather than a finding.

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Think this estimate is wrong? Here's how to tell me, and what happens next. The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.