The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
A role in my current career whose holders rotate off Earth
The staying route: stay in my current career, and take an opening that only exists once there is enough activity off Earth for my current employer to send people in roles like mine there. It needs the choice to have been made and a workforce off Earth to exist.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Assignment to a role in my current career from which holders are sent off Earth for a month or more, as recorded in my employment record.
Settled by: my employment record
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 35% | 45% | 50% | 50% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Needs my current employer to send people in roles like mine off Earth while I am still in it; the lowest personal number because it depends on the employer's decision, not mine. Personal, sketch-grade until I complete my current training (May 2027).
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.6% (+0.2 points). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.0% (−0.5 points).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 14% | 22% |
| If this settled no now | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | name | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | A role in my current career whose holders rotate off Earth | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | description | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | The staying route: stay in my current career, and take an opening that only exists once there is enough activity off Earth for my current employer to send people in roles like mine there. It needs the choice to have been made and a workforce off Earth to exist. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | resolution | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Assignment to a role in my current career from which holders are sent off Earth for a month or more, as recorded in my employment record. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | source | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | my employment record | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | rationale | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Needs my current employer to send people in roles like mine off Earth while I am still in it; the lowest personal number because it depends on the employer's decision, not mine. Personal, sketch-grade until I complete my current training (May 2027). | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-10-03 | id | see data/snapshots/renamed-ids.toml | A-current-career-role-with-off-earth-rotation-obtained | Id only, and with it the page's address: the old id described my current career, which no public surface does until May 2027 (decided September 25th, 2026; the rename I approved October 3rd, 2026 on Claude's proposal). Name, criterion, numbers and links are unchanged. Saved runs keep the old id and are read through data/snapshots/renamed-ids.toml. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.