The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 5 to 20 years
A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from my current career
The civilian route: leave at the six-year mark of my current contract and take the experience of my current career into a company that trains commercial crews. It needs the choice to have been made and the industry to exist.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Employment in a civilian role training spaceflight crews, as recorded by the employer.
Settled by: The employer's record
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 55% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Given the door exists and I walk toward it, a coin flip that it is me who gets through; flat past 2095 because a working career is bounded by more than the window. Personal, sketch-grade until I complete my current training (May 2027).
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.6% (+0.2 points). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 14% | 22% |
| If this settled no now | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | name | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from my current career | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | description | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | The civilian route: leave at the six-year mark of my current contract and take the experience of my current career into a company that trains commercial crews. It needs the choice to have been made and the industry to exist. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | rationale | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Given the door exists and I walk toward it, a coin flip that it is me who gets through; flat past 2095 because a working career is bounded by more than the window. Personal, sketch-grade until I complete my current training (May 2027). | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.