The tree · Access · World event · Mid: 5 to 20 years
A civilian role training spaceflight crews, entered from military survival instruction
The civilian route: separate at the six-year mark and take the survival-instructor experience into a company that trains commercial crews. It needs the choice to have been made and the industry to exist.
What counts as it having happened
Employment in a civilian role training spaceflight crews, as recorded by the employer.
Settled by: The employer's record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 55% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Given the door exists and John walks toward it, a coin flip that it is him who gets through; flat past 2095 because a working career is bounded by more than the window. Personal, sketch-grade until pipeline graduation.
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The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.