The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
Companies sell survival and emergency training to commercial spaceflight crews
Government astronauts get survival training from their agencies. Commercial crews, so far, get whatever their operator arranges. An industry that sells survival, egress, and contingency training to commercial crews is the door the civilian route in this branch walks through.
The test: what counts as it having happened
At least two companies publicly offer survival or contingency training to commercial spaceflight crews and each has at least two paying operator customers, by public announcement or contract.
Settled by: Public announcements and contract records
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 60% | 75% | 88% | 92% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Needs several commercial operators flying crews at once; today there are two, and each trains in house.
What this one is worth
If this happened tomorrow and nothing else changed, the chance that I live and work off Earth by 2071 goes from 0.5% to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance). If it turned out no, the same number goes to 0.5% (too small to tell apart from chance).
| Longevity scenario | baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The headline as it stands | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled yes now | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
| If this settled no now | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 11% | 15% |
This is what the site says in advance, before the thing happens. When it does, the
ledger entry that records it quotes this figure beside what actually followed, so a
reader can see whether the prediction held. Worked out at the run
2026-10-11-scan by holding this step at each outcome in turn and
playing the whole tree out again, 20,000 times per
scenario. That is a throw of the dice, so a move smaller than about
0.10 points is inside the noise rather than
a finding.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | description | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Government astronauts get survival training from their agencies. Commercial crews, so far, get whatever their operator arranges. An industry that sells survival, egress, and contingency training to commercial crews is the door the civilian route in this branch walks through. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.