The tree · Access · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
A technical paper on a subject in this tree is published by one person working with AI collaborators
The leverage claim in its strongest form: that a single person with these tools can carry a piece of research that used to need a group. The test is a real publication, on a subject the tree cares about, produced by John with AI collaborators and no institutional team.
What counts as it having happened
A preprint or peer-reviewed paper on a subject that is a node in this tree is published with John as sole human author and AI collaboration acknowledged.
Settled by: The preprint server or journal record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 85% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: The tools will allow it within a few years; the number is whether John chooses to spend a season on it, and the pipeline leaves little room before 2028. Personal.
Notes
Drafted as mid; set to leaf at step 7 (2026-09-08) because a preprint could be produced within five years, and sooner is the point of the leverage claim. The degree node drafted beside it was cut at the same time: the College project tracks it, and its link to the tree was the weakest in the branch.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.