The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
A technical paper on a subject in this tree is published by one person working with AI collaborators
The leverage claim in its strongest form: that a single person with these tools can carry a piece of research that used to need a group. The test is a real publication, on a subject the tree cares about, produced by me with AI collaborators and no institutional team.
The test: what counts as it having happened
A preprint or peer-reviewed paper on a subject that is a node in this tree is published with me as sole human author and AI collaboration acknowledged.
Settled by: The preprint server or journal record
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 85% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: The tools will allow it within a few years; the number is whether I choose to spend a season on it, and my current training leaves little room before 2028. Personal.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | rationale | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | The tools will allow it within a few years; the number is whether I choose to spend a season on it, and my current training leaves little room before 2028. Personal. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
Notes
Drafted as mid; set to leaf at step 7 (September 8th, 2026) because a preprint could be produced within five years, and sooner is the point of the leverage claim. The degree node drafted beside it was cut at the same time: the College project tracks it, and its link to the tree was the weakest in the branch.
Think this estimate is wrong?
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The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.