The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
Someone moves from the role I am training for into training spaceflight crews
Proof that the path exists: a person with the qualification my current training leads to takes a role training crews for a spaceflight operator or a training company. Once one person has done it, it is a career move rather than a hope.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Public reporting or an operator's announcement names a person whose prior role was the one my current training program qualifies me for, and whose new role is training spaceflight crews.
Settled by: Public reporting or the operator's announcement
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 75% | 85% | 92% | 94% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: One person, one announcement, and the skills carry over directly; the bar is low enough that it may already have happened without being reported.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
Revisions
| Date | Field | From | To | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | name | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Someone moves from the role I am training for into training spaceflight crews | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | description | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Proof that the path exists: a person with the qualification my current training leads to takes a role training crews for a spaceflight operator or a training company. Once one person has done it, it is a career move rather than a hope. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | resolution | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | Public reporting or an operator's announcement names a person whose prior role was the one my current training program qualifies me for, and whose new role is training spaceflight crews. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-09-25 | rationale | Wording that named my current career; withdrawn from public copy until May 2027 and kept in the repository's history | One person, one announcement, and the skills carry over directly; the bar is low enough that it may already have happened without being reported. | Decided September 25th, 2026 (definitions.md decision log): no public surface names my current career until I complete my training in May 2027. Same meaning; no probability or link moved. |
| 2026-10-03 | id | see data/snapshots/renamed-ids.toml | A-someone-from-current-role-hired-into-spaceflight-training | Id only, and with it the page's address: the old id described my current career, which no public surface does until May 2027 (decided September 25th, 2026; the rename I approved October 3rd, 2026 on Claude's proposal). Name, criterion, numbers and links are unchanged. Saved runs keep the old id and are read through data/snapshots/renamed-ids.toml. |
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.