The tree · Access · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
This tree's quarterly scan is produced by an AI system with a human only approving the changes
The first leverage node, and the one this project can resolve on itself: the quarterly scan (check every leaf against its source, propose resolutions and probability moves, draft the changelog line) is done end to end by an AI system, and John's only work is to approve or reject each change.
What counts as it having happened
Two consecutive quarterly scans are produced end to end by an AI system, with every change proposed by it and John's role limited to approval, as recorded in the changelog.
Settled by: This repo's changelog
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 92% | 94% | 95% | 95% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Within reach of today's tools; the risk is that the scan stops being run, not that the tool cannot do it.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.