The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Could be decided within 1 to 5 years
This tree's quarterly scan is produced by an AI system with a human only approving the changes
The first leverage node, and the one this project can resolve on itself: the quarterly scan (check every leaf against its source, propose resolutions and probability moves, draft the changelog line) is done end to end by an AI system, and my only work is to approve or reject each change.
The test: what counts as it having happened
Two consecutive quarterly scans are produced end to end by an AI system, with every change proposed by it and my role limited to approval, as recorded in the changelog.
Settled by: This repo's changelog
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 92% | 94% | 95% | 95% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Within reach of today's tools; the risk is that the scan stops being run, not that the tool cannot do it.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.