The tree · Access · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
A first flight to space, by purchase or by the job
What the A1 tier requires. Two ways in: a seat bought once seats are cheap enough, or a role that sends its holders up. One node with a name so the tier file stays a plain list.
What counts as it having happened
A completed flight to space, as recorded by the operator.
Settled by: The operator's record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either way in does; carried entirely by the seat-price node and the rotation-role node.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.