The tree · Access · Happens to the world · Plays out over the whole window
A first flight to space, by purchase or by the job
What the A1 tier requires. Two ways in: a seat bought once seats are cheap enough, or a role that sends its holders up. One node with a name so the tier file stays a plain list.
The test: what counts as it having happened
A completed flight to space, as recorded by the operator.
Settled by: The operator's record
The odds, by how long I live
| baselineto 2071 ± 8 | moderateto 2080 | strongto 2095 | radicalto 2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Each column is a different guess at how long I live, from current trends (baseline) to open-ended. The number is the chance this happens before that deadline, assuming everything it depends on happens first. As of September 19th, 2026.
Why these numbers: Resolves whenever either way in does; carried entirely by the seat-price node and the rotation-role node.
What this one is worth
Nothing. The headline number does not rest on this step at any remove, so however it turns out, the chance that I live and work off Earth does not change. That is not a judgement that it does not matter. It is what the tree says: this step feeds a tier above the one the headline asks about, or sits beside the equation rather than in it.
Think this estimate is wrong?
Here's how to tell me, and
what happens next.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.