The tree · Access · World event · Leaf: could resolve within 1 to 5 years
Graduation from the survival-specialist training pipeline
The gate on the whole branch. Everything downstream, military or civilian, assumes the qualification. Expected May 2027.
What counts as it having happened
Graduation from the pipeline, as recorded in the service record.
Settled by: The service record
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Resolves in 2027 whatever the window, so the number is flat. Published attrition in the pipeline is substantial; arriving from the Special Warfare pipeline already adapted to the load is the reason for a number this high. Personal, John's to move.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.