The tree · Access · Choice point · Mid: 5 to 20 years
Re-enlist at the six-year mark
One option at the first fork in the pathway: stay in service past the first contract, for as long as service keeps expanding capability in ways that serve the longer goal. Marked as the current plan because the sketch in definitions.md leans this way; John was explicitly hesitant, and the decision comparison exists to test it.
What counts as it having happened
A signed re-enlistment at the end of the first six-year term, in the service record.
Settled by: The service record
Probability, by longevity scenario
This is a choice point, something John decides rather than something that happens to the world, so it is never given a probability. In an ordinary run of the tree it is set to the current plan; the decision comparison forces each option in turn and reports how far the headline number moves. The other option at this fork: Separate at the six-year mark into civilian space or defence work.
Think this node is wrong, missing a dependency, or estimated badly?
Open an issue about it, or read
how critique gets folded into the tree.
The record itself is data/A-access.toml in the public repository.