The tree · Drive · World event · Root: on the scale of the whole window
A site beyond the Earth-Moon system is crewed without a break for a year
The Tier 3 definition needs at least one site beyond the Earth-Moon system: Mars, the asteroid belt, an outer moon, or a habitat out there. A crew round trip proves people can get there and back; a site crewed continuously for a year, with rotations, proves people can stay. It sits under drive because keeping a site beyond the Moon supplied is a transit problem before it is anything else.
What counts as it having happened
A site beyond the Earth-Moon system is occupied by people continuously for twelve months, with at least one crew rotation during that time, confirmed by the operator and independent tracking of the vehicles involved.
Settled by: The operator's records and independent tracking
Probability, by longevity scenario
| baseline2071 ± 8 | moderate2080 | strong2095 | radical2136 | openno deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 55% | 75% | 90% | 93% |
Each number is the chance this resolves yes before that scenario's window closes, given that everything it depends on resolves first. Estimated 2026-09-19.
Why these numbers: Getting there and back is proven by the dependency; staying needs a reason to keep a rotation running, which is a motive question the tree asks elsewhere.
Notes
Added at step 7 (2026-09-08) because no node covered Tier 3's beyond-the-Moon criterion. The criterion is deliberately inclusive: Mars, the asteroid belt, an outer moon, a free-flying habitat, or anywhere else beyond the Earth-Moon system all count, and any one of them resolves the node. Confirmed by John 2026-09-08 that every kind of habitation at Tier 3's level should count.
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The record itself is data/D-drive.toml in the public repository.